The Question of the Year: Rodgers or Mahomes for MVP?

Messi or Ronaldo? LeBron or Jordan? Each year, sports fans engage in a spirited debate over the best player in a particular sport. This year, football fans are divided on who deserves the 2021 NFL MVP: Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes or Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Both have led their teams to the number one seed in their respective conferences. When the NFL Honors roll around on February 6, the MVP award will end up in Rodgers’ trophy case as he secures the 3rd MVP of his career.

Each season the NFL has a clear MVP based on statistical performance. In 2019, the NFL named Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson—who broke Michael Vick's quarterback rushing record and threw a league-leading 36 touchdowns that season—was the unanimous MVP. The year before, 41 out of the 50 sportswriters assigned to decide the MVP voted for Patrick Mahomes, who threw 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns—the 2nd best mark of all-time—in a single season. This year, Rodgers, a 37-year old veteran, reached out statistically. He finished the season with a league-leading Quarterback rating (84.3) and completion percentage (70.7%). Rodgers has also thrown a career-high 48 touchdowns passes while leading his team to top the NFC with a 13-3 record. After throwing for 4,300 yards with just seven total turnovers, Rodgers is having the best season of his career and has been the MVP favorite for the better half of this season. If Rodgers were to win MVP, he would become the second oldest to do so in the history of the NFL.

On the other hand, this season, Mahomes stood out as an MVP candidate for how well he led his team. Since Mahomes directed the best offense in the league, it was no surprise that he led his team to a 14-1 record as the starter. He delivered 38 touchdown passes with only eight total turnovers, 3 of which came in one game, while also throwing for 4,740 yards—the second-most passing yards in the league.

In contrast, Rodgers did not have as much help as Mahomes. Though he does have one-time pro-bowler Davante Adams, Rodgers turned the ball fewer times than Mahomes. However, Rodgers did have some struggles. Even with Rodgers having a prolific year, he was held under 200 passing yards twice this year. Mahomes, in comparison, never failed to throw more than 200 yards in a single game. Furthermore, Mahomes almost had four games with nearly 400 or more passing yards while Rodgers’ season-high was 360 yards.

Rodgers, however, still led the league in passing touchdowns, quarterback rating, and passer rating. He also led his offense to the most points scored in the season (509 points, 31.8 PPG), the number one red-zone offense, and the most team touchdowns (66). With these accomplishments in the twilight of his career, he should win the MVP this season.

Find the complete statistics for both players at Pro Football Reference.