Boom or Bust?: What to Expect for the 2020 Boston Red Sox

This 2020 Red Sox team has the pure talent and ability to make the postseason and potentially make a deep run, but a lot of things will have to fall in place for them to accomplish this feat. Coming back after a World Series hangover season in which they missed the playoffs, the Red Sox still have the same young and talented core they have had for the past few years, with stars such as Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and JD Martinez. The same consistency and success from these stars, who led a team that ranked 1st in the MLB in hits in 2019 and 4th in runs scored, can be expected in 2020.

While the team can rely on a strong offense, their success depends primarily on the pitching. The team must solidify their starting rotation as well as fix a bullpen that had its faults in 2019. The Red Sox bullpen ranked 19th in the MLB last year with a team Earned Run Average (ERA) of 4.70. The team ERA is certainly something that can be improved upon, as the team needs serious pitching backup for their powerful offense. The major problem with their bullpen is their closer, or lack thereof. After the loss of Craig Kimbrel in free agency during the 2018 off-season, the bullpen seems lost without a locked-in closer. The team was tied for the most blown saves in the league in 2019, with 31. This statistic is appalling. Last year, Red Sox fans were frustrated to watch hard-fought games blown by a bullpen who could not support their offense. New Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom has not tended to these bullpen needs, and the team’s main focus is to stay under the luxury tax threshold and cut payroll to avoid being financially punished. The Red Sox should instead acquire help for the bullpen, rather than signing low-budget position players such as Jose Peraza and Kevin Plawecki, who were recent free-agent additions this off-season. This bullpen can have some success, with young talent such as Brandon Workman, who posted a 1.88 ERA in 2019 and can lead the bullpen, possibly in the closer role. However, the Red Sox need to make additions to this bullpen to save themselves from a repeat of last year’s struggles.

One major question mark surrounding the 2020 Red Sox is how they will perform without star outfielder Mookie Betts. A consistent force on the Red Sox offense, Betts won the Most Valuable Player award (MVP) in 2018 and has won 2 Silver Slugger awards in the past 2 years. In a blockbuster deal, the Red Sox traded Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers this off-season in exchange for outfielder Alex Verdugo. The deal seemed inevitable as the off-season progressed since the Red Sox did not have much traction in talks of an extension with Betts. Mookie reportedly countered a 10 year, $300 million deal from the Red Sox with one worth 12 years and $420 million, and made it clear he wants to get the most money that he can through free agency after this season. The trade for Betts is convenient for the Dodgers as they are already a powerhouse team contending for a World Series title and are adding a few final components to their lineup through this trade. While the loss of Betts is huge, the Red Sox still have a strong core of offensive players, and the team has logically gained prospects through the trade and to focus the future of the organization. The team’s main goal was to stay under the luxury tax threshold, and they certainly achieved that by trading Betts and Price as they got rid of two of the biggest contracts on the team. Since the luxury tax penalty resets after a year of being below the threshold, the Red Sox will theoretically have a much larger budget next off-season and spend much more money in free agency. Thus, Mookie’s desired 350 (or more) million dollar contract will be reasonably within the Red Sox budget, and a reunion between the Red Sox and Betts following the 2020 season is possible. While it was reasonable to trade Mookie Betts from a business standpoint, watching a fan-favorite superstar like Betts leave Boston was difficult, and the team will miss the formidable dual-threat player.

This Red Sox team is really in a boom or bust situation, and this season appears to be more of a bust. The expectations for this team are not particularly high following an extremely disappointing 2019 season, and considering their serious pitching problems, they do not seem to have what it takes pitching-wise to have a successful season. The team has some of the components of a successful team, as their offense has seen few changes since their historic World Series Championship run in 2018. With a strong bullpen performance this year, they can make it back to the postseason. However, they must strengthen their pitching staff to challenge teams like the Yankees and Astros and make a deep playoff run.